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The Fifth Man
California governor Arnold Schwarzenegger will speak at the Republican Convention. Will his star power help George W. Bush get re-elected?
by Bruno Giussani
23 August 2004
Call him the fifth chap in the four-men contest for the White House.
We're not referring to consumer advocate Ralph Nader, who is expected to take some votes from Democratic candidate John Kerry in the November 2nd election. Nor to Michael Moore, whose film "Fahrenheit 9/11" may scare a few voters away from President George Bush.
The fifth man is the former Austrian bodybuilder, Hollywood movie star and now governor of California Arnold Schwarzenegger.
Most opinion polls indicate that the two U.S. presidential tickets (Democrats Kerry and John Edwards versus Republicans Bush and Dick Cheney) are separated only by a few ballots. The 2000 election came down to a difference of 537 votes in Florida. In this context, what Schwarzenegger will decide to say and do in the next weeks may play a decisive role in the campaign, for the former "Terminator" is today the most popular politician in America. His prime-time speech at the Republican Convention, which will take place next week in New York, will be one of the most closely watched and analyzed of the political season and his support (or lack of) could decide George Bush's re-election.
The moderate and pragmatic Schwarzenegger, who is trying to fashion himself into a model of post-Iraq Republican, is a personal friend of John Kerry and doesn't' have a lot of sympathy for the U.S. President and his ideological approach to politics. He has recently been sending out mixed messages on how much support he's prepared to offer Bush. So during a recent interview in his Los Angeles office we asked the Governor whether he would campaign for the president.
He answered in a cautiously neutral tone that "when he comes out here I will be with him".
Schwarzenegger added that he will not lend his name to the Bush campaign in other States: "I was selected by the people of California - Democrats and Republicans alike - to run this State and make it turn around. That's my objective, that's my goal, and therefore I should not leave the State. There is so much work here that I cannot just go campaign for Bush. They can handle it themselves."
Solicited on his thoughts about the situation in Iraq, he said that "right now people are angry and upset and disappointed with how things have gone" and that if Kerry "can take advantage of Bush's vulnerabilities, there is no way to predict the outcome of the election".
He did not acknowledge that his own position may influence that very outcome.
Only ten months ago, Schwarzenegger's election to the governorship of America's biggest state yielded a worldwide questioning of the mental sanity of the Californians. Today, nobody's laughing anymore: the Governor has done much better than most people expected. His approval rating has been steady at 65 per cent for the last two months. The press, which was initially sceptical, is throwing laurels his way. Numerous politicians are trying to exploit some of his halo by presenting themselves as "Schwarzenegger Republicans".
Schwarzenegger's key asset is his hybrid political nature. He's at the same time on the right and on the left: fiscally conservative and adamantly pro-business, yet liberal on social issues such as abortion, gay rights, gun control, and the environment. This is reflected in the composition of his government, which includes Republicans, Democrats, Independents, and a Green. It doesn't hurt that he's been married since 1986 with Maria Shriver, the niece of President John F. Kennedy, and that his political persona has been much fashioned by the Kennedy clan. In an America that has not been so split and polarized since 1968 and Nixon, the Austrian immigrant embodies a rare hope of national reconciliation. His endless optimism represents an attractive alternative to the grim "politics of fear" of the Bush Administration.
It is thus a remarkable paradox that Schwarzenegger's clear and loud support is what president Bush desperately needs in order to present a more reassuring image of the conservatives and to attract moderate voters. That's why Bush, brushing aside his advisers' objections (they worry that the governor's brilliance may by comparison cast a shadow over the president) has offered him a prime-time speech at the Convention.
Schwarzenegger has accepted - he's too aware of the importance of symbolic power to pass up the opportunity of a prime-time national stage - and will speak on the evening of August 31st. It is expected to be a very subtle balancing act. Schwarzenegger clearly understands the nature of the governorship of California as a natural stepping stone for greatness, and by many accounts he entertains personal ambitions towards the Oval Office (although the Constitution currently prevents him from becoming president: only citizens born in the United States can run for the top office). Therefore, at the Convention he will have to show loyalty and do his part for the Republican Party and offer some form of support to President Bush. At the same time, being too closely identified with Bush's divisive tones and policies would diminish his personal appeal.
One of his answers during our interview may give a hint of what to expect from his speech: "Bush has to sell his ideas by himself. I cannot do it for him".
(copyright 2004 Bruno Giussani)
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