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Roam. Making Sense of the Wireless Internet
Reviews and press coverage
Content is for wires, communication is for wireless
interview by John Dunn, World Technology Intelligence, 2 May 2003
Bruno Giussani, author of "Roam", shares his thoughts on the implications of wireless technology.
Personal communications is most conveniently a wireless phenomenon. Was the world of wires just an aberration?
We are social beings and we are mobile, that's our nature, and therefore wireless communication is a natural support for our need of social connectedness, sense of belonging, fast and effective access to information, and peace-of-mind (the mother who knows that she can always reach her kids). As you say, it's essentially a personal communication phenomenon, despite all the emphasis put on "content" by the industry in recent years. However, it would be wrong to think that wire-line communication was an aberration. It was a stage in the evolution of technology. Wireless communication is very expensive and very complicated. Because of the need to 'follow' the user, it is naturally more complex (and less reliable) than its fixed cousin. Hence wires will continue to prosper. Someone said that all that used to be carried through the airwaves (essentially TV) would end up being wired, while what used to go through wires (essentially phone calls) would move to wireless. It's quite true. Take that as a general rule of future development: content is for wires, communication is for wireless.
Today's cellular networks provide an excellent means of making telephone calls and sending the odd plain-text message. How quickly do you think they will advance beyond this stage?
To some extent, they're already beyond this stage, in that they carry data and allow for pictures to be taken with camera-equipped phones and sent immediately. Under certain circumstances, they also support wireless video calls, transmitting live two-way video streams. However, it would be wrong to see the development of mobile communication as a linear path. It has been true for a while, with the second generation of technology (digital) taking over from the first (analog) in the 1990s. But now many different technologies are all growing in parallel, competing against and complementing each other. There are multiple ways to gain radio access (the 'signal'). Just to mention one that is currently much discussed and has, I believe, a huge potential: Wi-Fi. Concerning the handheld devices, they are finally starting to outgrow the form factor of the phone (12 keys and a small screen) and that of the pocket computer (think Palm or iPaq) and increasingly taking unorthodox shapes and 'absorbing' other devices (cameras, MP3 players, game consoles). Or maybe - we could start a debate - it will be the other way around, with wireless connectivity being spread into everything that's digital (cameras, game consoles, but also television sets, cars, hi-fi systems, etc). And these are just two examples of the furious developments of wireless technology today. How it will turn out is anyone's guess. On the network side, for example, my guess is that of a 'radio cloud' that would take advantage of all kinds of technologies, with devices picking up the most appropriate or best available access method depending on where a person is, and using a series of criteria such as how much a service costs. How quickly this happens will depend very much on how quickly all these parts can be made to work together seamlessly… which means that it will take a long time.
Do you foresee any social or economic changes being brought about by the emerging global wireless communications system?
Many, and we are already witnessing them. It's amazing to see how fast wireless communication has been adopted by 8 people out of 10 in Europe, and by 6 in 10 in the United States, and how fast it's growing in other parts of the world (last year the number of cell phone users in Africa went from 28 to 60 million, and in China they are already 200 million, more than in the US). This ubiquitous connectedness is having and will have major impacts on the way we use and manage our time, on the way we relate to others, on the way we perceive and react to the world around us, and on the way we organize ourselves as a community. If you think the Internet (beyond the 'bubble') has produced big changes, you can bet that cutting that cord and being able to roam around will have at least as big an impact.
The mobile industry is finding it hard to sell some of its new products and services such as picture messaging and fancy wireless PDAs. Is the industry ahead of its customers?
No. Most of the time, it's actually ignoring its customers. It's in denial. The industry is terrorized by the idea that what people want is first and foremost to communicate, that they value their mobile devices first and foremost for their ability to contact friends and colleagues anytime, from anywhere. If all people want is to communicate, then the wireless industry is at risk of not being anything other than a conduit for that communication. So most players are pushing a vision of the wireless sector as a lifestyle industry, and believe that the next big thing is "content" - selling news and sport video clips and downloadable music to customers. They're so enamoured with this idea that they ignore even the most pressing demands from the market. What is the one thing that most people really care about and can no longer do without and find increasingly difficult to manage (and therefore they would welcome a little help)? It's email. And yet no one is providing wireless email in an easy-to-use, immediate, effective, cost-realistic and open way.
(Copyright World Technology Intelligence 2003)
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